Leading up to his May 29 presentation at the BookExpo America convention in New York, Apple analyst Benedict Evans released a presentation outlining his predictions for the computer industry. He, along with many other journalists and tech pundits, foresees continual growth in mobile computing (the tablet and smartphone market).
He charts the steady adoption of mobile phones since 2000. Since the modern era of smartphones (following the release of the iPhone in 2007), and particularly beginning in 2010, we see a sharp increase in mobile phone and tablet adoption. For instance, in 2012, 350 million PCs were sold versus 1.7 billion phones. Furthermore, phones and tablets have a growing share of web traffic, and will continue to eclipse the PC market.
Evans sees the four big players of the future as Apple, Google, Facebook, and Amazon. With the exception of Apple, which uses its ecosystem to sell hardware, the "...experience on the phone... drives engagement with [Google, Facebook, and Amazon's] services." Other platforms such as Microsoft's Windows, Blackberry, and other smaller players entering the market will be far less relevant, and it is unlikely they will be able to catch up.
The undertone of the presentation suggests that Apple should not be underestimated. Evans clearly points out Apple's dominance in tablets, and hints at, what some technologists perceive to be, Android's shortcoming - namely Google's "..partial control of Android..."
The presentation is insightful and makes one wonder what the future has in store.